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Question: table 1 represents the yearly beef consumption in canada from...

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Table 1 represents the yearly beef consumption in Canada from 2007 – 2017. Answer the following questions using Table 1.

  1. Calculate 2018 forecast using (i) 5-Period and (ii) 6-Period Moving Average. Show your work in Table 1.
  2. Calculate 2011 forecast using Exponential Smoothing with (i) α = 0.2 and (ii)   α = 0.4. Show your work in Table 1.
  3. Calculate the Absolute Forecast Errors for your Exponentially Smoothing forecasts with (i) α = 0.2 and (ii)   α = 0.4 from 2007 – 2011. Show your work in Table 1.

Year

Beef Consumption (Thousands of Tones)

MA-5

MA-6

ES (0.2)

ES (0.4)

Absolute Forecast Error ES (0.2)

Absolute Forecast Error ES (0.4)

2007

1476.45

1476.45

1476.45

2008

1490.34

2009

1440.73

2010

1471.34

2011

1371.93

2012

1312.02

2013

1311.49

2014

1342.96

2015

1298.81

2016

1370.62

2017

1405.13

2018

4. Plot (in Excel) the 2007 - 2017 demand as a line chart and fit a linear trend to it using “Trendline”. Display Equation on chart and space given below. Forecast 2018 demand using equation.

Equation:

2018 Forecast:

5. Use Excel to compute MAPE using Exponential Smoothing with (i) α = 0.2 and (ii)   α = 0.4; which value of α would you suggest for demand data provided in Table 1.

MAPE – ES (0.2) =

MAPE – ES (0.3) =

Value of α =

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