Question: table 1 represents the yearly beef consumption in canada from...
Question details
Table 1 represents the yearly beef consumption in Canada from 2007 – 2017. Answer the following questions using Table 1.
- Calculate 2018 forecast using (i) 5-Period and (ii) 6-Period Moving Average. Show your work in Table 1.
- Calculate 2011 forecast using Exponential Smoothing with (i) α = 0.2 and (ii) α = 0.4. Show your work in Table 1.
- Calculate the Absolute Forecast Errors for your Exponentially Smoothing forecasts with (i) α = 0.2 and (ii) α = 0.4 from 2007 – 2011. Show your work in Table 1.
Year |
Beef Consumption (Thousands of Tones) |
MA-5 |
MA-6 |
ES (0.2) |
ES (0.4) |
Absolute Forecast Error ES (0.2) |
Absolute Forecast Error ES (0.4) |
2007 |
1476.45 |
1476.45 |
1476.45 |
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2008 |
1490.34 |
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2009 |
1440.73 |
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2010 |
1471.34 |
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2011 |
1371.93 |
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2012 |
1312.02 |
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2013 |
1311.49 |
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2014 |
1342.96 |
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2015 |
1298.81 |
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2016 |
1370.62 |
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2017 |
1405.13 |
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2018 |
4. Plot (in Excel) the 2007 - 2017 demand as a line chart and fit a linear trend to it using “Trendline”. Display Equation on chart and space given below. Forecast 2018 demand using equation.
Equation:
2018 Forecast:
5. Use Excel to compute MAPE using Exponential Smoothing with (i) α = 0.2 and (ii) α = 0.4; which value of α would you suggest for demand data provided in Table 1.
MAPE – ES (0.2) =
MAPE – ES (0.3) =
Value of α =