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  3. your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to...

Question: your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to...

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Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.


MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND
1 59
2 65
3 65
4 67
5 71
6 70
7 77
8 77
9 77
10 75
11 83
12 81

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2–12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 63 and an α of 0.20. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)


Month Single Exponential
Smoothing Forecast
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12


d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2–12 using an initial trend forecast (T1) of 1.60, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F1) of 62, an α of 0.20, and a δ of 0.30. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)


Month Exponential Smoothing
with Trend
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12


e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4–12. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)


Mean Absolute
Deviation
Three-month moving average
Three-month weighted moving average
Single exponential smoothing forecast
Exponential smoothing with trend
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